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Monitoring For Possible SFL Severe Storms Sunday Afternoon

November 29, 2008 by Jeff Gammons  
Filed under Featured, South Florida, Top Stories

Sunday and Sunday Evening Possible Severe Storms -
Things are beginning to look a tad more interesting for tomorrow concerning some possible severe weather associated with the next frontal boundary. Moisture return and modification of the local atmosphere has already begun here in South Florida, and if it continues, it might just help with tomorrows setup of a moderately sheared atmosphere and decent forcing. Not surprising, I’d like to see some of these parameters coming together tomorrow so I can get in some late season Florida storm chasing. Right now the forecast computer models are in fair agreement with timing, but still are not sure on the amount of moisture that will be in place. The do agree that there will be some decent wind shear profiles and forcing, but if the atmosphere is moisture starved, we could be looking at only some isolated low-top possible Supercells.

The Storm Prediction Center this morning discussed a little about the increased threat for Southern Florida late into Sunday, and that they might need to bump up into a slight risk category if the trends continue.

THIS SRN ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS…AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TORNADOES…MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THIS STRONGLY SHEARED…BUOYANT AIRMASS.

Standing By For Some Late Fall Storm Chasing Florida Style

No matter what takes place tomorrow, I’ll be sure to be monitoring the setup in the early morning, and head out in the afternoon for some possible late Fall Florida storm chasing. Nothing like a Sunday with some early afternoon NFL Dolphins football, followed by some late afternoon and early evening storm interception. I’d really like to experience both on Sunday to put a nice close to my extended Thanksgiving weekend.

Look for further updates tomorrow…

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2 Responses to “Monitoring For Possible SFL Severe Storms Sunday Afternoon”

  1. Martin Kucera on November 30th, 2008 5:13 am

    Hey Jeff,

    great looking website you’ve got here. Things looking quite well, its been a while since we had some stormy weather down here in the Keys. Of course will be watching for large waterspouts but gladly take a nice, photogenic squall line. Good luck with your chase ! Hope you get a nice show up by lake Okee. I love chasing just south of it on US27.

    Martin

  2. Jeff Gammons on November 30th, 2008 8:45 am

    Thanks Martin, needed a new look going into 2009.

    Yeah it’s been awhile since we have seen any decent wind profiles around here for severe storms. Today is looking pretty interesting indeed, and with good heating, moisture surging northward, and decent wind shear, we could some rotating storm this afternoon. I know I’m ready to do some local chasing today and help with my severe SDS already this fall. LOL

    Good luck down there in the Keys today with any discrete cells and then eventually the squall line moving in from the west.

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