Late Season Tropical Storm Ida Forms Southwest Caribbean

November 4, 2009 – Tropical Storm Ida organizing in the southwestern Caribbean Sea this afternoon. A recent reconnaissance flight into the Tropical Depression, found winds that have now increased into the moderate Tropical Storm force range. Tropical Storm Ida has winds of 60mph with higher gusts, and slowly moving west-northwest around 6mph. Visible satellite loop trends throughout the day, have showed a fairly organized system, with nice banding of deep convection. I’m surprised that recon found an already impressive 60mph tropical storm with a pressure reading of 996mb. What would we do without solid data from recon missions.

A lot is up in the air about the future track and strength of Ida. If she continues to slowly track a little more west-northwestward, she will remain very close to the Nicaragua coastline, and is forecast to move inland overnight and on Thursday. This would significantly affect the strength, and sustaining of a organized system, especially once it moves fully over land. Right now I’m more focused on it’s future track over the next 48 hours, while interacting with Central American. It is forecast to track out into the western Caribbean and slowly re-intensify.

Models are in agreement in bringing Ida northwestward into the western Caribbean Sea, and possibly the Gulf of Mexico as well. It’s way to early to know for sure if Ida would even make it that far north with some of the land obstacles ahead of her. I’m watching very closely as this late season Tropical Storm is positioned south of Florida in November. It will be interesting to track and see what she does into this weekend. Stay tuned!