Late Season Tropical Storm Ida Forms Southwest Caribbean

November 4, 2009 – Tropical Storm Ida organizing in the southwestern Caribbean Sea this afternoon. A recent reconnaissance flight into the Tropical Depression, found winds that have now increased into the moderate Tropical Storm force range. Tropical Storm Ida has winds of 60mph with higher gusts, and slowly moving west-northwest around 6mph. Visible satellite loop trends throughout the day, have showed a fairly organized system, with nice banding of deep convection. I’m surprised that recon found an already impressive 60mph tropical storm with a pressure reading of 996mb. What would we do without solid data from recon missions.

A lot is up in the air about the future track and strength of Ida. If she continues to slowly track a little more west-northwestward, she will remain very close to the Nicaragua coastline, and is forecast to move inland overnight and on Thursday. This would significantly affect the strength, and sustaining of a organized system, especially once it moves fully over land. Right now I’m more focused on it’s future track over the next 48 hours, while interacting with Central American. It is forecast to track out into the western Caribbean and slowly re-intensify.

Models are in agreement in bringing Ida northwestward into the western Caribbean Sea, and possibly the Gulf of Mexico as well. It’s way to early to know for sure if Ida would even make it that far north with some of the land obstacles ahead of her. I’m watching very closely as this late season Tropical Storm is positioned south of Florida in November. It will be interesting to track and see what she does into this weekend. Stay tuned!

Slow Start To Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009 – Invest 97L

July 19, 2009 – The Tropical Atlantic basin has remained nearly non-active since the start of the season back on June 1st. There has been only a few small tropical waves of interest in the western Caribbean Sea in late June last month, but outside of that, the quiet tropics have been the norm.

June and July are normally the slowest months for Tropical Storm or Hurricane activity, but you still tend to get a few Tropical Depressions or disturbances to track mostly in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. The problem so far here in 2009 is, there has been a significant amount of strong mid to upper-level winds across the Gulf, Caribbean and Western Atlantic region. This has made the environment very hostile for tropical cyclone formation throughout the first half of Summer. Florida has seen a significant amount of troughs digging in over the state making a very wet season, with records amounts of rain and thunderstorm days. The normal easterly wind flow of Florida’s summers has been seen little this year, with westerlies keeping the storms more active over the eastern coasts rather than the west coast.

Developing El Nino and The Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

These same westerlies is what has put a cap on the 2009 Hurricane Season as of this time, and NOAA announced last week that El-Nino has begun and expected to intensify into the Winter 09/10. El-Nino is known for suppressing hurricanes from developing in the Atlantic basin by helping to produce stronger westerlies winds that create wind shear for developing storms. It’s still early in the season, and the peak hurricane months are still too come, and its not yet known how much El-Nino will have on the current season.

Tropical Wave Invest 97L – (SAL) Saharan Air Layer Dust – Wind Shear

Just recently in the last several days, we’ve been monitoring the first two noticeable eastern Tropical Atlantic waves that came off the coast of Africa. Both systems have struggled with strong wind shear and (SAL) Saharan Air Layer, which is African dust from the Saharan Desert. These dust storms can travel across the Atlantic as well creating subsidence and dry air, and can inhibit hurricane development as well. As a mater of fact, as I type this post, we here in Southeast Florida have been dealing with SAL the last several days with hazy skies.

The first wave of the two was ripped apart by the strong wind shear, but the second one has organized some, especially overnight and some today. It has been labeled Invest 97L and is currently being monitoring for any development. At this time the upper-air environment remains heavily sheared to the west of the system, and 97L might find itself being torn apart too in the coming days. Status updates on our Hurricane Chase Info page.

It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the season pans out, and if August and September will crank up in tropical weather activity. It only take one hurricane to strike your region to make it a busy season. In 1992 Category 5 Hurricane Andrew was the first hurricane of the season, and it struck South Florida on August 24th.